Using this simple equation, Dollar-based climate losses for Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru are compared with those for China and the US in Dollars per tonne CO2 – not just tonnes CO2 Financial metrics applied to economic scenarios are invaluable for assessing the risks associated with climate change at global, national and city […]
Boiled frog syndrome is when you think nothing much is wrong until suddenly you realise it’s too late and you have run out of time to prevent catastrophe. The boiled frog fable imagines that a frog dropped into boiling water will jump out immediately. However, if the frog is immersed in tepid water that is then slowly heated, the frog gets […]
PAL’s methodology is a classic research narrative that reveals the tip of a $1.8 trillion iceberg of potential claims from cities across the globe. In brief, PAL’s step-by-step research narrative goes like this: historically GDP has driven emissions, emissions drive temperature increases, increased temperatures drive more extreme weather, which in turn increases insured and uninsured […]
In 2015 a report “Small City, Regional and Global Predictions for 2015, 2016 and 2017” was sealed and lodged by Predict Ability (PAL) in the safe of a legal firm. The report was generated programmatically, using PAL’s proprietary prediction technology: this machine-generated report was designed to identify qualifying ‘disaster events’ predicted to occur within specified […]
An estimated $19billion will be needed to fund the infrastructure to protect New York City from storm surges such as 2012’s Super Storm Sandy, that are bound to come again and come more frequently. Mayor de Blasio’s primary claim against 5 Big Oil (BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell) implies – correctly – […]
This new case study shows how PAL’s Carbon Value at Risk (VaR) metric is used to determine the extent of carbon liability risk – the potential cost of damage attributable to carbon emission related anthropogenic (manmade) climate change. For users of biomass as a fuel source such as Drax power station, it highlights a potential $23bn ‘black hole’ between the expected loss and […]
Global warming, caused by CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, currently costs global GDP a staggering $1 trillion in damages p.a. Small wonder the UN, IMF and World Bank have all called for a carbon price: policy makers in government and corporations urgently need this price so they can account for […]
The forthcoming InsiderScope panel discussion ‘Reinsurance: survival tactics in a brutal market’ on 9 May 2017 is timely. The Insurance Industry is being hammered relentlessly by the devastating effects of manmade climate change and the resulting claims payouts. At PAL, we estimate that the percentage increase in insured loss and damage attributable to global warming […]
The global loss and damage arising from all weather events that were attributable to man-made climate change in 2016 was $953,905,000,000 This is based upon estimated carbon emissions for 2016 of 37,705,000,000 tCO2, and PAL’s global one-year Carbon Loss Index (CLIX) of $25.30 per tonne of CO2. The CLIX benchmark measures loss and damage attributable to […]
Climate change is once again under the microscope at COP22 this month and one point in particular will be a review of the previously established Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage and whether developed countries would be able to fulfil their commitment to provide a total of $100bn a year of financial aid by 2020. PAL’s view is that the […]