An unprecedented 4% growth in GDP is the UK’s only hope for survival – but at what cost of decarbonisation? In our new modelling, we examine a full range of decarbonisation costs from $0-100 per tonne CO2. It shows the calamitous effect upon the UK of high decarbonisation costs and a failure to increase GDP […]
By 2100, two thirds of all US GDP growth scenarios are predicted to have collapsed or be in the process of collapse. For China, all scenarios grow. On 8th October 2018, Professors William Nordhaus and Paul Romer were awarded the Nobel Prize for their work on economic growth and climate change. The UN IPCC’s landmark […]
Its increasing deployment trend compares well with that of PAL’s correlation of extreme weather-related disasters and global warming – another evidence-based validation of PAL’s algorithm-based predictability.
Boiled frog syndrome is when you think nothing much is wrong until suddenly you realise it’s too late and you have run out of time to prevent catastrophe. The boiled frog fable imagines that a frog dropped into boiling water will jump out immediately. However, if the frog is immersed in tepid water that is then slowly heated, the frog gets […]
The twin threats to London of fluvial flooding and storm surges are no longer exceptional.
PAL’s methodology is a classic research narrative that reveals the tip of a $1.8 trillion iceberg of potential claims from cities across the globe. In brief, PAL’s step-by-step research narrative goes like this: historically GDP has driven emissions, emissions drive temperature increases, increased temperatures drive more extreme weather, which in turn increases insured and uninsured […]
New York City’s claim is paving the way to an enormous black hole in the share value of 5 Big Oil (and other oil companies too). The staggering sums scoping the size of their potential liability from climate-related claims is a warning to asset managers and pension fund administrators. The 5 Big Oil companies should […]
In 2015 a report “Small City, Regional and Global Predictions for 2015, 2016 and 2017” was sealed and lodged by Predict Ability (PAL) in the safe of a legal firm. The report was generated programmatically, using PAL’s proprietary prediction technology: this machine-generated report was designed to identify qualifying ‘disaster events’ predicted to occur within specified […]
An estimated $19billion will be needed to fund the infrastructure to protect New York City from storm surges such as 2012’s Super Storm Sandy, that are bound to come again and come more frequently. Mayor de Blasio’s primary claim against 5 Big Oil (BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell) implies – correctly – […]
This new case study shows how PAL’s Carbon Value at Risk (VaR) metric is used to determine the extent of carbon liability risk – the potential cost of damage attributable to carbon emission related anthropogenic (manmade) climate change. For users of biomass as a fuel source such as Drax power station, it highlights a potential $23bn ‘black hole’ between the expected loss and […]