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Using this simple equation, Dollar-based climate losses for Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru are compared with those for China and the US in Dollars per tonne CO2 – not just tonnes CO2 Financial metrics applied to economic scenarios are invaluable for assessing the risks associated with climate change at global, national and city levels. Using data derived from the actual loss and damage costs attributable to manmade climate change triggered by fossil fuel burning since 1750, we published the world’s first, scientific carbon pricing methodology in our book ‘Predicting The Price Of Carbon’ by my colleague Richard H.…
After the recent release of the 4th US National Climate Assessment, detailing climate change impact ‘will inflict substantial damages on US lives‘, our new financial impact focused report shows two thirds of all US GDP growth scenarios are predicted to be in serious decline by 2100 as a result of the effects of climate change. Read more…
New Global Climate Risk Map identifies, quantifies and puts Dollar figures on Climate Change Risk for 520 cities worldwide With international agreement on climate change policy still a distant dream, the need for individual cities to grasp the financial implications of their local vulnerability to the ravages of unabated global warming has never been so urgent.
An unprecedented 4% growth in GDP is the UK’s only hope for survival – but at what cost of decarbonisation? In our new modelling, we examine a full range of decarbonisation costs from $0-100 per tonne CO2. It shows the calamitous effect upon the UK of high decarbonisation costs and a failure to increase GDP to unprecedented levels. Result? Total economic collapse.
By 2100, two thirds of all US GDP growth scenarios are predicted to have collapsed or be in the process of collapse. For China, all scenarios grow. On 8th October 2018, Professors William Nordhaus and Paul Romer were awarded the Nobel Prize for their work on economic growth and climate change. The UN IPCC’s landmark report on the perils of exceeding 1.5°C of global warming, published on the same day, hardly mentions the effect of climate change on growth. Yet the survival of our global economy is at stake unless the balance between growth and climate change is tackled.
Its increasing deployment trend compares well with that of PAL’s correlation of extreme weather-related disasters and global warming – another evidence-based validation of PAL’s algorithm-based predictability.
Boiled frog syndrome is when you think nothing much is wrong until suddenly you realise it’s too late and you have run out of time to prevent catastrophe. The boiled frog fable imagines that a frog dropped into boiling water will jump out immediately. However, if the frog is immersed in tepid water that is then slowly heated, the frog gets used to the gradually increasing heat before realizing – too late – that it cannot escape being boiled alive. How did this metaphor for our present day attitude to climate change come about?
The twin threats to London of fluvial flooding and storm surges are no longer exceptional.
PAL’s methodology is a classic research narrative that reveals the tip of a $1.8 trillion iceberg of potential claims from cities across the globe. In brief, PAL’s step-by-step research narrative goes like this: historically GDP has driven emissions, emissions drive temperature increases, increased temperatures drive more extreme weather, which in turn increases insured and uninsured loss and damage.
New York City’s claim is paving the way to an enormous black hole in the share value of 5 Big Oil (and other oil companies too). The staggering sums scoping the size of their potential liability from climate-related claims is a warning to asset managers and pension fund administrators. The 5 Big Oil companies should identify this potential liability as Value at Risk (VaR) in their annual reports: failure to do so could be seen by shareholders as a lack of transparency.