PAL was founded in 2015 by three climate change researchers.

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Left to right: Richard Clarke, Bruce Menzies, Edward Coe.


Following a Masters Degree in soil mechanics from the University of Auckland Bruce joined a firm of civil engineering consultants.  He moved to the UK in 1964 to lecture at Kingston University, UCL and then the University of Surrey.  He left academia in 1982 to found Global Digital Systems Limited which designs, develops and manufactures materials testing machines and software used for the computer controlled testing of soils and rocks.  Bruce was responsible for planning, directing and controlling engineering product design, manufacturing and marketing.  In 2011 GDS won the Queens Award for Enterprise and was sold to Judges Scientific plc in 2012.

Bruce has an extensive list of academic papers and articles to his name, largely from his time in academia, and also several books on geotechnical topics and geology.  He holds doctorates from the University of London and University of Auckland.

As Bruce Menzies says in our video, “We cannot prevent these extreme weather related disasters but at Predict Ability Ltd we can predict by region and time scale when they’re likely to occur.”

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Richard graduated in chemical engineering from the University of Birmingham in 1979 and joined the UKAEA, Harwell, where he spent 15 years leading projects related to the industrial air separation and offshore oil and gas industries.  Richard is an expert on heat exchangers, cryogenics and helium.

In 1995 he joined BOC in a worldwide role as Principle Heat Exchange Technologist.  After a period as an independent technology consultant he rejoined BOC in the US before returning to the UK to join the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy (linked to the UK Atomic Energy Authority) running a major cryogenic plant.  At CCFE Richard initiated and led the Helium Resources Project with the University of Cambridge and BOC Ltd.

These roles were the catalyst for Richard’s interest in climate change with the result that he immersed himself in the scientific literature on the topic.  This in turn led to the founding of PAL with Bruce Menzies.

Since 2012 Richard has operated as an independent process and resources consultant.  He has authored many academic articles and made keynote presentations at conferences on heat exchangers, helium resources and supply.  He is currently researching and writing his second book, on climate change and the insurance industry, Predicting The Price of Carbon.

As Richard Clarke says in our video, “Our predictive algorithm, PALgamma, has been rigorously back tested and has 96% correlation with total loss-events over the past 35 years.  This gives us confidence that we can predict disasters to 2020 and beyond.  Insurers using PALgamma would have predicted Hurricane Katrina, and been able to minimise loss of life and suffering as well as saving billions of dollars.”

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After graduating from Durham University with a degree in Natural Sciences Edward initially joined Barclays in a trainee actuarial role before making a career change into software engineering and IT development.  He has held senior roles with West LB, Standard Bank, Credit Suisse and SunGard Financial Systems. He joined PAL full time in May 2015.

Edward has extensive experience of systems development and implementation for advanced trading operations utilising a broad range of technologies supporting in house, bespoke and third party software including derivatives trading systems.  He has a track record of leading large projects delivering significant operational and cost savings.

His experience is ideally suited to harnessing the complex and intricate requirements of the PAL methodology.  His ability to bring elegance and functionality to the design and of the model is a key strength.

As Edward Coe says in our video, “Having a pretty good idea of where and when these extreme weather disasters are likely to happen would be invaluable to the insurance industry in terms of risk zoning and loss provisioning.”

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Principals was last modified: October 26th, 2018 by admin