How do you predict disasters, insurers loss provision savings, climate change and carbon pricing to 2025 and beyond?
With our unique algorithm, which does not use curve fitting or statistics and which is driven by data in the public domain. For more detail, refer to PALgamma simply explained and to PAL Carbon simply explained and to PAL Carbon for the climate change professional.
Why haven’t I heard of you before?
The three directors of PAL have been working together for over two years investigating the science of disaster prediction and climate change.
Predict Ability Limited (PAL) was incorporated in February 2015, thus we are a start-up business and our presence in the media is under development.
Where can I leave comments?
Comments can be left on our posts.
Who are the principals?
- Dr Bruce K. Menzies PhD DSc CEng FICE, is CEO and Director (Earth Sciences).
- Richard H. Clarke BSc CEng FIChemE, is Director (Research).
- Edward J. Coe BSc MBCS, is Director (Computing).
Read more about the principals here.
Where are your publications on predicting disasters, climate change and carbon pricing?
Our research on disaster prediction, climate change and carbon pricing is comprehensively documented in an internal, legally protected environment, in order to safeguard our Intellectual Property.
We are publishing Richard Clarke’s new book ‘The Price of Carbon‘ on our web site, serialising the chapters over the coming weeks. This revolutionary work details the body of knowledge gained from the extensive research upon which PAL is founded. An invaluable resource in its own right to other researchers, it offers over 1,000 references with clickable links to the online sources.
We are also publishing a intraday carbon price available on our PAL Carbon smartphone app.
How do your predictions work out in practice?
Referring to our home page graph shown here, we can predict total disasters year on year with a correlation of 96% for the period 1980-2014 when comparing with Munich RE published figures.
What do the terms hydrological, geophysical, etc mean on the PAL graph?
These are the terms of classification the experts use. Further information can be found here.
Why do I see a step change in the carbon price?
PAL Carbon pricing methodology requires a real-time global temperature anomaly. To calculate this, we compare current temperatures with historical daily averages. As a result there may be an associated step in the price from day to day.
Who will need PALgamma?
Interested parties include:
Re/insurers • energy and petrochemical companies • energy strategists • energy index providers • energy R&D practitioners • industrial gas companies • economists • venture capitalists • asset fund managers • forestry managers • green financing • disaster relief agencies • regional and national governments • the United Nations • the World Bank • the renewables industry • the carbon capture and storage industry • the carbon offset industry • climate policy initiatives • climate change advisors • carbon emissions auditors • and of course carbon traders!