UK: 250 scenarios of GDP growth and climate effect

UK faces 88% risk of economic collapse from Climate Change this century

Posted on Posted in Chairman’s Blog

An unprecedented 4% growth in GDP is the UK’s only hope for survival – but at what cost of decarbonisation?

In our new modelling, we examine a full range of decarbonisation costs from $0-100 per tonne CO2. It shows the calamitous effect upon the UK of high decarbonisation costs and a failure to increase GDP to unprecedented levels. Result? Total economic collapse.

As seen in Table 1 below, on the red/green grid, if decarbonisation costs are low, it is economically prudent to implement the Paris Agreement limiting global warming to 2°C. But at $75 or more per tonne CO2, then 2°C becomes not only unobtainable but also economically disastrous.

 

UK GDP growth and climate change scenarios

 

Table 1. UK GDP growth grid for climate scenarios of Paris and BAU (Business As Usual), for various combinations of climate sensitivity (a measure of the impact of emissions) and decarbonisation costs.

 

We recently projected and compared over 250 scenarios of growth and climate for China and the US, showing the delicate balance required between growth and the globally ruinous impacts of Climate Change for global GDP to survive. Using the same 250 scenarios, Figure 1 below shows the corresponding growth patterns for the UK.

 

UK: 250 scenarios of GDP growth and climate effect

 

Figure 1. UK GDP growth projections.

 

The UK faces an 88% risk of economic collapse by Climate Change this century. The current average GDP growth of 2.4% is nowhere near enough for the UK economy to avoid crashing.

An unprecedented 4% growth in GDP is the UK’s only hope for survival – but at what cost of decarbonisation?

 

Bruce Menzies, Chairman, Predict Ability Ltd (PAL)

© Copyright Predict Ability Ltd 2018. All rights reserved.

Bruce Menzies

Author: Bruce Menzies

Bruce Menzies is Chairman and co-founder of PAL. He founded Global Digital Systems Ltd that won the Queen’s Award For Enterprise 2011. Bruce is co-author of six books on geotechnics and geology, one of which won the British Geotechnical Association Prize 2002. He holds doctorates from the Universities of London and Auckland, and is a Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers.

UK faces 88% risk of economic collapse from Climate Change this century was last modified: November 9th, 2018 by Bruce Menzies

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